The California governor’s major — and Tuesday’s debate — happen in opposition to a backdrop of voters calling the price of dwelling within the state unmanageable, with many feeling the well-known “California Dream” is out of attain.
So, what would major voters need executed about that proper now?
Democrats, who are likely to see the state’s economic system as higher than different voters do, are on the lookout for no less than some similarity with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s insurance policies and overwhelmingly need a candidate who’d oppose President Trump. Republicans, nonetheless, paint a a lot bleaker image of the state.
All meaning it is nonetheless a wide-open contest with a whole lot of candidates within the combine, together with a closely fractured Democratic discipline, as the share of undecided voters outweighs any single candidate’s assist. And candidates are sometimes being thought of by extra folks than those that are at the moment voting for them.
Describing a selection
The descriptors “values” and “judgment” stand out as fascinating qualities in a candidate. Democrats additionally need “expertise” — maybe partly reflecting that they’re the incumbent get together.
Extra Republicans need a candidate they affiliate with “change.”
With most voters saying debates matter no less than considerably, all of it suggests a dramatic closing month earlier than the first.
Value of dwelling
Extra Californians name the price of dwelling in California “unmanageable” than did 5 years in the past, partly reflecting the inflationary pressures over the following years after COVID.
Extra broadly, and maybe extra long run, there’s a insecurity that the California Dream is attainable.
That stated, youthful folks stay comparatively extra optimistic, and there is extra confidence amongst these underneath 50 than amongst older Californians, and amongst Democrats extra so than Republicans.
The economic system general
Past the non-public, partisans have barely totally different takes on what’s occurring to the state’s economic system. That, in flip, shapes what they need from a governor.
Democrats are likely to have a greater impression of how issues are stepping into California, in comparison with different voters general.
Democrats additionally are likely to say California extra usually units a great instance for the remainder of the nation. Republicans suppose it units a foul one.
So, Democratic major voters need a candidate with insurance policies no less than considerably, if not very, just like Newsom’s.
Throughout the Democratic ranks, those that need a candidate with very related insurance policies to Newsom are a bit extra for former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, whereas Democrats who need somebody with totally different insurance policies are a bit extra for philanthropist Tom Steyer.
Republicans, for his or her half, paint a way more dire image of the state. They see a state the place issues aren’t going nicely, the place the economic system is not only unhealthy, however is worse than the nation’s.
And there’s a distinction of opinion on what the subsequent governor ought to prioritize of their method to serving to the center and dealing class.
Democrats need the subsequent governor to prioritize a mixture that features constructing extra housing, whereas Republicans largely establish the highest precedence as decreasing taxes.
Fuel costs
Fuel costs specifically have hit exhausting. (This isn’t distinctive to California, as our polling nationally has additionally proven.)
As one potential coverage to deal with gasoline costs in California, voters are combined on whether or not they need the subsequent governor to droop a part of the state’s gasoline tax, with barely extra saying not to take action.
The problems of the economic system and jobs and inflation are at or close to the highest for each events. Immigration and crime are greater in significance for Republicans, and local weather change and healthcare are greater for Democrats.
Nationally, People have perceived a connection between the rise in gasoline costs and the battle in Iran.
Massive majorities of California voters are against the U.S. navy motion in Iran and say a candidate’s place on it is very important their vote.
The Trump issue
Democrats overwhelmingly need a candidate who at all times opposes Mr. Trump, and specifically wouldn’t cooperate with the administration on ICE operations.
That is partly as a result of they — like nearly all of voters general — imagine the Trump administration treats California worse than different states.
Republicans need a candidate who often, if not at all times, helps Mr. Trump.
Vote selection
On vote selection, it stays a fractured discipline and a really open contest general to safe the highest two positions that advance to the November common election. No single two candidates have pulled away, and the 2 highest — Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer — are within the mid-teens, with a lot of the others separated from one another by single digits. In reality, there are extra “undecided” voters than any single candidate has assist, underscoring the potential volatility of the race.
The state’s Democratic voters enormously outnumber its Republican voters. Nevertheless, with many Democratic candidates operating and splitting up all these Democratic votes, there may be concern amongst Democrats that the 2 Republican candidates may then end on high. That would go away the Democrats shut out of the overall election.
That stated, particular person Democrats have not but consolidated behind anybody or two candidates en masse.
We additionally requested which candidates voters would possibly contemplate — even when they are not backing them now — and voters may choose as many or as few as they preferred.
The chart under exhibits the share who would contemplate supporting every candidate, maybe reflecting their ceiling in the mean time, if they will translate that consideration into assist down the highway.
Additionally, for a lot of voters, there are a whole lot of candidates about whom they haven’t heard sufficient.
Democratic voters say they might contemplate a number of candidates proper now, however virtually completely Democratic candidates. As an example, only a few of these contemplating Becerra and Steyer are additionally contemplating Republicans Hilton or Bianco. Equally, only a few who’re contemplating GOP candidates are additionally contemplating Democratic ones.
That giant variety of undecided voters could possibly be partially as a result of a large portion of major voters are usually not happy with the present selection of candidates. It is independents who most want there have been extra selections. However these unhappy are additionally much less prone to say they’ll vote, so it might be that the citizens shifts as nicely if they do not present up.
This CBS Information/YouGov survey was performed with a consultant pattern of 1,479 registered voters in California interviewed between April 23-27, 2026. The pattern was weighted in accordance with gender, age, race, schooling, and geographic area primarily based on the voter file and U.S. Census knowledge, in addition to to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 4.2 factors for registered voters and ± 4.1 factors for possible major voters.